![]() ![]() The Uniform California Earthquake Forecast gives a 93 percent chance of a 7.0 earthquake by 2045.Īnd what will California resemble another quarter of a century from now? Some estimates have the state’s population growing another 50 percent, to 60 million residents. The 1906 San Francisco event was the last earthquake greater than magnitude 7 to occur along the San Andreas system. Take the San Andreas fault system, the title of an over-the-top movie starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson as a helicopter pilot who rescues his daughter from disaster-struck San Francisco (last week, the Fox television series 9-1-1 chronicled the aftermath of a major earthquake in Los Angeles). But talk to scientists and they’ll tell you the clock is ticking. ![]() You’ll notice little activity in recent years. Here’s a list of “major” earthquakes in California history. Two words no California official will dare utter that day: “earthquake drought.” It will also be the second week that the new governor’s tenure. Next January marks the 25 th anniversary of that terrible event. Though it lasted twenty seconds at most, it claimed 57 lives, injured another 9,000 residents, and caused approximately $20–25 billion in damages (82,000 residential and commercial buildings were damaged or destroyed seven freeway bridges collapsed and 212 others were damaged or destroyed). 17, 1994 (the epicenter was in Reseda, north of Los Angeles in the San Fernando Valley). The next great California disturbance came four years and three months later: the Northridge earthquake. It also caused an estimated $7.4 billion in direct damage and an additional $2.6 billion in uninsured property damage and secondary economic impacts. The so-called “Loma Prieta” quake-named after its epicenter, the Loma Prieta peak in the Santa Cruz mountains, about sixty miles south-southeast of San Francisco-killed sixty-three people and injured another 3,000. 17, 1989, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck the San Francisco and Monterey Bay regions. His second two-term stint as governor has coincided with some of the most destructive wildfires in the history of the Golden State (specifically five of California’s ten worst blazes taking into account structural losses).īut Brown has been lucky in this regard: with roughly thirteen weeks left in his final term, he’s yet to have experienced a seismic event that struck a major California city-a rupture in both commerce and everyday life that puts a dent in California’s economy.Īs it’s October and baseball’s playoffs are underway, long-residing Californians will recall the events in 1989 and the earthquake that brought that year’s all-California World Series to a temporary halt. Here, Jerry Brown hasn’t been so fortunate. The other “luck” variable: natural disasters. The bottom line: a slower economy translates to less revenue coming Sacramento’s way, which means a California governor goes from a being a big-spending Santa Claus to a budget-cutting Scrooge. California’s payrolls are expected to fall from 1.7 percent at present to 0.8 percent in 2020 real personal income personal growth will grow to 3.6 percent in 2019, the recede to 2.9 percent in 2020. Last week’s UCLA Anderson Forecast sees a cooling-off period ahead. However, California’s economic outlook isn’t promising. California’s accounted for about one-fifth of America’s economic growth since Brown took office in 2011. Brown hasn’t in this, his second turn as governor (he also ran the state from 1975–83). Brown’s three immediate successors-Arnold Schwarzenegger, Gray Davis, and Pete Wilson-all faced recessions during their respective tenures. Here, Jerry Brown has led a charmed life. How to define gubernatorial luck? Two ways.įirst, there’s California’s economic health. It’s a Woody Allen drama set in London, chronicling the lives and dubious life choices of the British upper crust.īut it does get to an uneasy question that will greet California’s fortieth governor come January: Will good fortune smile upon Gavin Newsom or John Cox during their reign in Sacramento? Granted, the film has nothing to do with California politics and policy. People are afraid to face how great a part of life is dependent on luck.” ![]() Not the entire film, mind you, just the opening lines: “The man who said ‘I’d rather be lucky than good,’ saw deeply into life. To appreciate what awaits the man who’ll replace Jerry Brown, take a time-out from politics and watch the movie Match Point. ![]()
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